Alan Lichtman 2024 Election Prediction. Allan lichtman's forecast is not based on any polls but on 13 keys that he devised in 1981. Statistician and prognosticator nate silver and historian allan lichtman traded barbs on social media over 2024 presidential election predictions.
While campaign events and speeches draw much attention, lichtman argues that the governing of the incumbent party is more predictive of election outcomes. Lichtman says that keys 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 13 are true this year:
